Thursday, August 30, 2007

Crazy Trade Offers

Some people like giving and receiving crazy trade offers. I know I don't mind seeing the offers: it's pretty easy to reject them. Others don't.

Yahoo! has a trading block, where you can reveal to the league which players on the team are willingly available.

I think we could create a no trade list on this blog, where you can reveal to the league the players on your team that are virtually untouchable. It's not that you're showing the league who you will never trade; rarely is any player completely untouchable. It is that you are revealing to the league the players you value the most, and the players you would only trade if you were knocked over by an amazing, outlandish trade beneficial to you.

Feel free to let people know who is virtually untouchable in the comments here, if you'd like to avoid getting ridiculous offers.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Another Auction: Comparisons to Our Beloved Hazelweird

So last night I took place in an another auction draft. Outside myself I believe there was only one other person who had participated in an auction before. The league was set up with 10 teams and a $200 cap for 17 players. The settings were very similar to ours except that yards were slightly more important (10 yds rec/rushing = 1pt/25 yds pass = 1pt). So I thought I would take Joe's earlier listing of all players who went for $30 or more in our league and show everyone how much they went for in that leauge (these numbers will be in brackets) and I will not the players that I took. So here we go.

1. Ladanian Tomlinson 123 Rob [$85]
2. Steven Jackson 96 Abe [$77]
3. Joseph Addai 75 Abe [$56]
4. Peyton Manning 75 Jerod [$57, interesting note on this..the guy had already paid $28 for McNabb]
5. Frank Gore 71 Jon [$60]
6. Terrell Owens 69 Kiah [$37....MY PLAYER]
7. Larry Johnson 63 Jerod [$66]
8. Steve Smith 59 Joe [$46....MY PLAYER]
9. Carson Palmer 57 Bryan (Kiah) [$52]
10. Torry Holt 55 Rob (Justin) [$41]
11. Marvin Harrison 55 Jon [$42]
12. Chad Johnson 53 Jerod [$45]
13. Larry Fitzgerald 50 Bryan (Justin) [$29]
14. Tom Brady 48 Brad [$41]
15. Antonio Gates 48 Justin [$36.....MY PLAYER]
16. Reggie Bush 47 Brad [$25]
17. Shaun Alexander 47 Justin (Rob) [$60]
18. Laurence Maroney 44 Joe [$46......MY PLAYER]
19. Javon Walker 41 Rob [$33]
20. Brian Westbrook 40 Kiah [$40]
21. Reggie Wayne 40 Joe [$40]
22. Rudi Johnson 40 Kiah [$46]
23. Willie Parker 40 Brad[$51]
24. Randy Moss 35 Brad [$21]
25. Donovan McNabb 35 Joe [$28]
26. Willis McGahee 35 Brad [$18]
27. Ronnie Brown 34 Jerod [$24]
28. Travis Henry 34 Justin [$16]
29. Edgerrin James 31 Kiah [$30]
30. Roy Williams 31 Joe [$32]
31. T.J. Houshmandzedhah 31 Kiah [$20]
32. Marc Bulger 30 Jon [$30]
33. Drew Brees 30 Kiah (Bryan) [$36]
34. Lee Evans 30 Jon [$20]

Friday, August 24, 2007

Viable Fantasy Strategy

Some of us have debated the validity of loading up on a high octane offense for your fantasy team. In fact Joe and I discussed the possibility of drafting the whole Colts offense and about how many fantasy points you could expect out of them. In the end we decided that it probably would be a viable option but would be hard to accomplish because of the auction costs and the inability to have a viable 2nd RB, Defense, and good bench players.

However, what about Fantasy Trio's. In the first year of this league through free agency I jumped on the Buffalo offensive juggernaut of Bledsoe, Price, and Henry and tried to acquire Eric Moulds. It worked for awhile, but then crashed. Others have had team duos, but how many other trio's have we had? I know this year currently Kiah has Palmer, R.Johnson, and Houshmanzadeh. What do you all think about starting almost half your fantasy team from one team?

RBs: 2005 draft v. 2007 fantasy draft

The fantasy football draft season focuses a lot on running backs, and it calls to mind the real 2005 NFL draft, when three running backs were selected among the top five players. Just for fun, let's look at DraftHistory.com for the top six RBs selected in 2005, and let's look at each RBs fantasy status in 2007. We can look at each player's auction value in the Hazelweird league, the average slot for each player in Yahoo! drafts, as well as the actual production of each player.

Ronnie Brown
2005 #2 pick
2007 auction value: $34
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 17.2
Best season (2006): 1,008 yards

Cedric Benson
2005 #4 pick
2007 auction value: $14
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 41.0
Best season (2006): 647 yards

Carnell Williams
2005 #5 pick
2007 auction value: $4
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 80.1
Best season (2005): 1,178 yards

J.J. Arrington
2005 #44 pick
2007 auction value: undrafted
2007 average Yahoo! selection: none
Best season (2005): 370 yards

Eric Shelton
2005 #54 pick
2007 auction value: undrafted
2007 average Yahoo! selection: none
Best season (2006): 23 yards

Frank Gore
2005 #65 pick
2007 auction value: $71
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 5.9
Best season (2006): 1,695 yards

It's pretty obvious and common to talk about the NFL draft as a "crapshoot," and to look at the early busts and late steals. But it is still interesting that in a matter of two years, the sixth RB selected, and 65th player selected overall, is now considered at least twice as valuable a fantasy prospect as the first RB and 2nd player selected overall. J.J. Arrington and Eric Shelton are worthless as fantasy prospects. But will the order of value remain the same after the 2007 season? I doubt it. Things change pretty fast in football (and fantasy football), and while right now the four worthwhile players would be ranked Gore, Brown, Benson, then Williams, a year of football could reverse that entire order (though I expect Gore to stay high: there aren't a lot of RBs capable of rushing for 1,695 yards OR 5.4 yards per attempt, much less in the same season).

Oh, and other 2005 RBs were drafted in our league, including Vernand Morency (#73), Marion Barber (#109) and Brandon Jacobs (#110).

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Yahoo Projects Week 1

**Please read PV's post directly before this one first**

PV got us going right and quick by listing week 1 starters and wondering what all of us thought. I had been thinking about this, but was holding off on the post until right before Thursday of Week 1 Kickoffs. (I do plan to do the same post with up-to-date rosters going into opening week in the case of injuries or emerging stars). So here it goes, I looked at everyone's starters (same as PV's post below except Bryan fixed his starters and chose D.Jackson over A.Johnson) and then went to the week 1 projections for each team. Here is what I found with the mock standings based on projections right after.

Abe
Kitna = 7.91
S.Jackson = 9.64
Addai = 11.97
Colston = 4.21
Driver = 4.80
McMichael = 2.54
NO K = 5.97
SD D = 5.30
Total = 52.34

Justin
Romo = 12.14
Henry = 8.31
Jacobs = 9.11
Holt = 6.27
Fitzgerald = 6.29
Gates = 5.65
Indy K = 9.39
Baltimore D = 6.22
Total = 63.38

Joe
McNabb = 10.46
Maroney = 9.94
Peterson = 4.64
S.Smith = 7.99
Wayne = 6.90
Heap = 4.72
Cincy K = 6.14
Minn D = 5.10
Total = 55.89

Rob
Favre = 8.87
LT = 12.43
Alexander = 8.82
Walker = 5.79
Ma.Clayton = 3.59
Gonzalez = 3.49
Denver K = 6.39
G.B. D = 6.34
Total = 55.72

Jerod
P.Manning = 12.69
LJ = 9.45
Brown = 6.36
Ch.Johnson = 7.62
Coles = 5.18
Shockey = 3.91
SD K = 7.28
Philly D = 5.77
Total = 58.26

Jon
Bulger = 9.78
Gore = 9.98
Benson = 7.25
Harrison = 8.68
Boldin = 4.59
Winslow = 4.30
GB K = 5.88
NE D = 5.83
Total = 56.29

Kiah
Palmer = 9.59
Westbrook = 9.43
James = 7.11
Owens = 8.79
Houshmanzadeh = 6.83
Cooley = 3.92
St.L K = 7.90
Pitt D = 8.71
Total = 62.28

Brad
Brady = 9.85
Bush = 8.12
Parker = 7.13
R.Moss = 4.84
Edwards = 5.68
Crumpler = 4.22
Det K = 5.45
Chicago D = 7.25
Total = 52.54

Bryan
Brees = 8.59
Jones-Drew = 8.91
Lewis = 4.27
D.Jackson = 6.00
Burress = 6.14
Daniels = 4.62
Chicago K = 6.57
Miami D = 5.26
Total = 50.36

Results and Standings
1. Justin 8-0 (63.38)
2. Kiah 7-1 (62.28)
3. Jerod 6-2 (58.26)
4. Jon 5-3 (56.29)
5. Joe 4-4 (55.89)
6. Rob 3-5 (55.72)
7. Brad 2-6 (52.54)
8. Abe 1-7 (52.34)
9. Bryan 0-8 (50.36)

I put no stock in what Yahoo says, as I feel I more than likely will finish somewhere between 4th and 9th week 1, but what do you all think.

(I am thinking about doing this before each week and then keeping track of how Yahoo does in predicting our finishes [not our scores since that would never be right] throughout the year...and at the end of the year see how Yahoo's would have predicted our winner compared to our actual winner)

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Projected Starting Lineups

Let's take a look at each team's projected starting lineup for week one.

JON
qb marc bulger
rb frank gore
rb cedric benson
wr marvin harrison
wr anquan boldin
te kellen winslow
k packers
d patriots

ABE
qb jon kitna
rb steven jackson
rb joseph addai
wr marques colston
wr donald driver
te randy mcmichael
k saints
d chargers

JOE
qb donovan mcnabb
rb laurence maroney
rb adrian peterson
wr reggie wayne
wr steve smith
te todd heap
k bengals
d vikings

BRYAN*
qb drew brees
rb maurice jones-drew
rb jamal lewis
wr andre johnson
wr plaxico burress
te owen daniels
k bears
d dolphins

JEROD
qb peyton manning
rb larry johnson
rb ronnie brown
wr chad johnson
wr laveranues coles
te jeremy shockey
k chargers
d eagles

BRAD
qb tom brady
rb reggie bush
rb willie parker
wr randy moss
wr braylon edwards
te alge crumpler
k lions
d bears

JUSTIN
qb tony romo
rb travis henry
rb brandon jacobs
wr torry holt
wr larry fitzgerald
te antonio gates
k colts
d ravens

ROB
qb brett favre
rb ladainian tomlinson
rb shaun alexander
wr javon walker
wr mark clayton
te tony gonzalez
k broncos
d packers

KIAH
qb carson palmer
rb brian westbrook
rb rudi johnson
wr terrell owens
wr tj houshmandzadeh
te chris cooley
k rams
d steelers

So there you go: we remove strength based on depth and look to the sort of lineup each of us can start week one. Some of us could go with different lineups (for example, Brad could start Willis McGahee), but these lineups seem likely. What do you think? Who's got the best looking lineup right now?

*Bryan listed Alex Smith, Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson, and Brian Leonard as his starters. I could have left those in, but I don't believe he's going with that lineup week one, so his team is the only starting lineup I altered. Sorry, Bryan, if you really do mean to leave Drew Brees, Andre Johnson, Plaxico Burress, and Jamal Lewis on the bench, but I surmised that you're not really starting Brian Leonard.

(NOTE: I changed the settings to show the comments in a pop-up window so that we can comment while reading the post. If anybody has trouble using this, please let me know via email: I will switch it back since it is a priority for everybody to be able to comment. If you simply don't like reading the comments in the pop-up window, you can click the permalink--the date and time--and scroll down for the comments. Really, if any of the settings bother anybody, please voice your objections: this blog is for all of us to use, so I want it to suit us all).

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Trading Frenzy

One thing that often happens in fantasy leagues which is part of the fun is trading. This year in the Hazelweird League we saw an unusual amount of trading occurring within the first couple days of the draft being completed. When trades are done this early one way to analyze the trades can be to look at who got the best value based on auction costs. Before we begin we need to remember that this is not an exact science nor does it necessarily entail who is getting the best value since the cost of players fluctuates so much in the draft depending on who has been thrown out and who might have the money to spend. Perhaps if Plaxico Burress had been thrown out earlier he might have gone for more money or he could have gone for less and the same can go for many players, but more often then not players go for what they are expected to go for or at least close. I will begin by listing all the trades completed since the draft and then I will analyze them based on auction values. So here we go.

Trade #1: Bryan gets Brees, Cotchery, Arizona K…..Kiah gets Palmer, St. Louis K, Denver D

Trade #2: Rob gets Alexander, Reggie Brown….Justin gets Torry Holt, Jamal Lewis

Trade #3: Rob gets Dunn, Denver D…..Kiah gets Tatum Bell, Tony Scheffler

Trade #4: Bryan gets Burress, D.Jackson, J.Lewis….Justin gets Fitzgerald, Arizona K, Barber III

Trade #5: Jon gets Kellen Winslow….Justin gets Vernon Davis

Trade #6: Bryan gets Rivers, D.Lee…..Rob gets Leinart, Gonzalez

Now looking at each team here is the differences between their original teams and their current teams (auction cost in parenthesis):

Rob
Gone: J.Lewis (15), Holt (55), T.Bell (1), Scheffler (1), Rivers (20), D.Lee (1)
Added: Alexander (47), Reg.Brown (10), Dunn (1), Denver D (1), Leinart (15), Gonzalez (15)

Jon
Gone: Vernon Davis (20)
Added: Winslow (11)

Kiah
Gone: Brees (30), Cotchery (3), Arizona K (1), Dunn (1)
Added: Palmer (57), St. Louis K (1), Bell (1), Scheffler (1)

Justin
Gone: Burress (15), Alexander (47), D.Jackson (11), Winslow (11), Reg. Brown (10)
Added: Holt (55), Fitzgerald (50), Barber III (18), Arizona K (1), V.Davis (20)

Bryan
Gone: Palmer (57), St. Louis K (1), Denver D (1), Fitzgerald (50), Barber III (18), Leinart (15), Gonzalez (15)
Added: Brees (30), Cotchery (3), Burress (15), D.Jackson (11), J.Lewis (15), Rivers (20), D.Lee (1)

If we add up the total money added and subtract the total money gone then we get the value of their team over or under the drafting salary cap of $265. Here are the teams and the amount paid for the players currently on their roster listed from highest to lowest.

1. Justin $315 (+50)
2. Kiah $290 (+25)
3. Jerod $265
4. Joe $265
5. Brad $265
6. Abe $265
7. Rob $261 (-4)
8. Jon $256 (-9)
9. Bryan $203 (-62)

Again this is all relative since not all players contribute to a teams success and the fact that the values of players in draft can often fluctuate depending on when they are thrown out. Everyone is free to discuss the information provided above.