Draft Day Projections v. Current Projections

I thought it would be interesting to to show how Yahoo's projections have changed since draft day (yes, it is probably a good thing that I start teaching next week--and for what it's worth I'll be much busier this fall than usual--this is't that interesting).  Basically, here's the current ranking, and in parentheses is the change from draft day ranking. I'll note again that Yahoo's projections generally seem to hate teams that spend a lot on RBs (with their two lineup spots) and love teams that spend a lot at pass catching positions (with their four).

1. Adam (+1)
2. Chris (+8)
3. Abe (+1)
4. Tony (+1)
5. Kiah (-4)
6. Brad (-3)
7. Joe (+4)
8. Nate (-1)
9. Jerod (-3)
10. Bryan (-1)
11. Jon (-3)
12. Justin (--)

Preseason Free Agent Pick Tracker

Bryan: Tim Wright (Eric Ebron)
Tony: Lance Dunbar (Jonathan Stewart)
Nate: Jonathan Grimes (Marvin Jones)
Justin [via Jon]: Justin Hunter (Marquise Lee)
Joe: Donald Brown (Ka'Deem Carey)
Kiah: Travis Kelce (Charles Sims)
Chris: Ahmad Bradshaw (Andre Brown)
Justin: Richard Rodgers (Garrett Graham)
Adam: Ronnie Hilman (Tre Mason)

Picks remaining: Abe, Jerod, Brad

Draft Analysis #3

Here I'm simply noting how Yahoo projections rank our teams at each position.  I am only looking at projected starters: this analysis does not account for depth.  If you've set a lineup, I've used the lineup you've set; if you didn't, I used whomever Yahoo projects to score the most points.  This may lead to some aberrations, since we essentially have two flex positions (W/R and W/T) that give lineup flexibility that you may not intend to use beyond week one.  In a few cases this makes a clear comparison difficult, but also shows...something.

As you can see, nobody really gets out of a draft without some weakness.

QB
1. Adam: Manning (275)
2. Chris: Brees (257)
3. Bryan: Rodgers (247)
4. Nate: Griffin (243)
5. Brad: Stafford (235)
6. Tony: Luck (233)
7. Jerod: Newton (232)
8. Joe: Kaepernick (227)
9. Jon: Brady (226)
10. Abe: Ryan (223)
11. Justin: Romo (220)
12. Kiah: Rivers (206)

RB
1. Joe: McCoy/Murray (448)
2. Nate: Foster/Lynch (422)
3. Jon: Peterson/Bush (399)
4. Brad: Charles/Pierce (387)
5. Bryan: Lacy/Gore (387)
6. Justin: Ball/Bell (385)
7. Abe: Ellington/Martin (371)
8. Jerod: Stacy/Jennings (363)
9. Kiah: Bernard/Vereen (363)
10. Adam: Gerhart/Sankey (345)
11. Chris: Forte (240)
12. Tony: Richardson (141)

WR
1. Kiah: Nelson/Jones/Johnson (540)
2. Abe: Bryant/Williams/Cobb (511)
3. Chris: Jackson/Allen/Decker/Matthews (509)
4. Brad: Green/Welker/Garcon (505)
5. Jerod: Marshall/Hilton/Edelman (480)
6. Adam: Patterson/Brown/Jackson (471)
7. Tony: Jeffery/Harvin/Smith (463)
8. Bryan: Johnson/Benjamin/Randle (460)
9. Jon: Thomas/Shorts/Boldin (446)
10. Nate: Fitzgerald/Crabtree/Wallace (426)
11. Justin: Colston/Cruz/Cooper (418)
12. Joe: Floyd/Sanders/Wright (404)

TE
1. Tony: Graham/Thomas (319)
2. Chris: Gronkowski (151)
3. Kiah: Witten (131)
4. Brad: Olsen (118)
5. Adam: Cameron (110)
6. Justin: Reed (99)
7. Jon: Davis (98)
8. Abe: Rudolph (96)
9. Jerod: Clay (93)
10. Joe: Ertz (90)
11. Nate: Green (82)
12. Bryan: Graham (79)

Draft Analysis #2

For this positional analysis, I am looking not at who we each drafted to start, but where the players Yahoo projects as starters ended up.  Below you'll see the top 12 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs, and top 12 TEs on each of their teams.  For positional analysis, instead of using Yahoo's rankings, I was able to use Yahoo's point projections based on our league's scoring rules (which differs in several ways from the "rankings," and which better reflects the value of QBs in our league).

I may add comments later.

Joe
QB: C. Kaepernick (#9)
RB: L. McCoy (#4), D. Murray (#5)
WR: M. Floyd (#26), K. Wright (#29), E. Sanders (#32)
TE:

Tony
QB: A. Luck (#7)
RB:
WR: A. Jeffery (#9), T. Smith (#19), P. Harvin (#24),
TE: J. Graham (#1), J. Thomas (#3), M. Bennett (#7)

Abe
QB: M. Ryan (#11)
RB: A. Ellington (#12), D. Martin (#15)
WR: D. Bryant (#2), R. Cobb (#13), T. Williams (#23), D. Bowe (#27), A. Dobson (#36)
TE: K. Rudolph (#11)

Adam
QB: P. Manning (#1), N. Foles (#4)
RB: B. Sankey (#16), T. Gerhart (#17), R. Mathews (#23)
WR: A. Brown (#8), C. Patterson (#16), D. Jackson (#28)
TE: J. Cameron (#6), D. Pitta (#9)

Justin
QB: T. Romo (#12)
RB: M. Ball (#10), L. Bell (#13), A. Morris (#14), S. Ridley (#20), CJ Spiller (#21)
WR: V. Cruz (#20), M. Colston (#21), R. Cooper (#35)
TE: J. Reed (#8)

Jerod
QB: C. Newton (#8)
RB: Z. Stacy (#11), R. Jennings (#18)
WR: B. Marshall (#5), J. Edelman (#18), TY Hilton (#25)
TE: C. Clay (#12)

Nate
QB: R. Griffin (#5)
RB: A. Foster (#7), M. Lynch (#8)
WR: L. Fitzgerald (#10), M. Wallace (#31), M. Crabtree (#34)
TE:

Jon
QB: T. Brady (#10)
RB: A. Peterson (#2)
WR:  D. Thomas (#3), C. Shorts (#30)
TE: V. Davis (#10)

Bryan
QB: A. Rodgers (#3)
RB: E. Lacy (#6), F. Gore (#19)
WR: C. Johnson (#1)
TE:

Kiah
QB:
RB: G. Bernard (#9), S. Vereen (#22), S. Jackson (#24)
WR: J. Jones (#4), J. Nelson (#7), A. Johnson (#14), R. White (#17),
TE: J. Witten (#4)

Brad
QB: M. Stafford (#6)
RB: J. Charles (#1),
WR: AJ Green (#6), W. Welker (#12), P. Garcon (#15),
TE: G. Olsen (#5)

Chris
QB: D. Brees (#2)
RB: M. Forte (#3),
WR: K. Allen (#11), V. Jackson (#22), E. Decker (#33)
TE: R. Gronkowski (#2)

Draft Analysis #1

In this look, I examine how each of our auction approaches translates to a snake draft.  I've simply used Yahoo's rankings for the top 108 players (which takes us through 9 rounds, meaning in theory everybody could draft all of their starters, sans defense and kicker).  Below you'll see the top 108 players on their assigned teams.  For each team I've translated the ranking into the theoretical round, and in parentheses I added how many of the top 108 each team got.  I may have made some errors in transcription here.

In a perfect translation, each of us would have one 1st, one 2nd, etc., so you can see what sorts of sacrifices people make as they draft.

It's worth noting that Yahoo's rankings really don't translate to our auction prices cleanly at all, for several reasons, but that this is the easiest way to add this material.

Later I'll try some different ways to analyze how we prioritized different positions (it will be easier to do this if people put in their planned lineups, but that's up to you).

Joe: one 1st, one 2nd, one 5th, one 6th, two 7ths, two 8ths, one 9th (9)
L. McCoy (#2), D. Murray (#16), M. Floyd (#53), K. Wright (#66), P. Thomas (#76), R. Wilson (#84), C. Kaepernick (#87), E. Sanders (#90), Z. Ertz (#103),

Tony:  one 1st, one 2nd, two 3rds, one 5th, two 7ths, one 8th, one 9th (9)
J. Graham (#7), A. Jeffery (#21), J. Thomas (#36), P. Harvin (#45), A. Luck (#60), T. Smith (#63), T. Richardson (#72), J. Cutler (#77), R. Rice (#99),

Abe: one 1st, three 3rds, one 5th, one 7th, two 9ths (8)
D. Bryant (#12), A. Ellington (#26), R. Cobb (#31), D. Martin (#32), M. Ryan (#59), T. Williams (#73), K. Rudolph (#97),  D. Bowe (#106),

Adam: one 2nd, three 3rds, two 4ths, two 5ths, one 6th, two 8ths (11)
P. Manning (#15), A. Brown (#27), R. Mathews (#30), T. Gerhart (#34), B. Sankey (#37), C. Patterson (#48), D. Jackson (#51), J. Cameron (#58), N. Foles (#69), M. Evans (#92), D. Pitta (#94),

Justin: one 1st, two 2nds, one 3rd, one 4th, three 6ths, two 7ths, one 8th, one 9th (12)
M. Ball (#8), L. Bell (#17), A. Morris (#24), CJ Spiller (#28), V Cruz (#39), S. Ridley (#62), Chris Johnson (#65), M. Colston (#71), T. Romo (#75), L. Miller (#80), R. Cooper (#93), J. Reed (#100),

Jerod: one 2nd, two 3rds, two 5ths, three 6ths, two 7ths, two 9ths (12)
B. Marshall (#14), Z. Stacy (#25), R. Jennings (#35), C. Newton (#56), TY Hilton (#57), J. Edelman (#64), J. Maclin (#67), B. Tate (#70), G. Tate (#79), M. Jones-Drew (#82), S. Watkins (#105), D. Sproles (#108),

Nate: two 1sts, one 4th, one 5th, one 6th, one 7th, two 8th (8)
M. Lynch (#9), A. Foster (#10), L. Fitzgerald (#40), M. Crabtree (#49), R. Griffin (#61), M. Wallace (#83), R. Wayne (#88), M. Jones (#95),

Jon: two 1sts, two 4ths, one 7th, one 8th, one 9th (7)
A. Peterson (#3), D. Thomas (#11), R. Bush (#38), V. Davis (#47), T. Brady (#81), C. Shorts (#87), A. Boldin (#107),

Bryan: two 1sts, one 2nd, one 4th, one 8th, one 9th (6)
E. Lacy (#4), Calvin Johnson (#6), A. Rodgers (#22), F. Gore (#46), F. Jackson (#96), R. Randle (#101),

Kiah: three 2nds, two 4ths, two 5ths, one 6th, one 7th, two 8ths (11)
J. Jones (#19), G. Bernard (#20), J. Nelson (#23), A. Johnson (#43), R. White (#44), S. Vereen (#50), J. Bell (#54), S. Jackson (#68), J. Witten (#78), P. Rivers (#86), T. West (#89),

Brad: one 1st, one 2nd, two 4ths, one 5th, one 7th, two 9ths (8)
J. Charles (#1), AJ Green (#13), W. Welker (#41), P. Garcon (#42), M. Stafford (#55), G. Olsen (#74), B. Pierce (#98), B. Cooks (#102),

Chris: one 1st, one 2nd, two 3rds, one 5th, one 8th, one 9th (7)
M. Forte (#5), D. Brees (#18), K. Allen (#29), V. Jackson (#33), R. Gronkowski (#52), E. Decker (#91), B. Roethlisberger* (#104), *added in "supplemental draft"

Our Current Constitution

Updated October 11, 2018

HAZELWEIRD LEAGUE RULEBOOK

1. Cross Country Standings
Each week, every team competes against every other team. If there are ten teams in the league, the team with the most points that week defeated everybody else, thus going 9-0. The team with the second-most points defeated eight other teams, but lost to one team, thus going 8-1. Yada Yada Yada, the team with the least points was defeated by everybody, thus going 0-9.

Weekly Scores:
Most points: 9-0
2nd: 8-1
3rd: 7-2
4th: 6-3
5th: 5-4
6th: 4-5
7th: 3-6
8th: 2-7
9th: 1-8
10th: 0-9

 These are the wins and losses for the single week. For the season standings, wins and losses from every week continue to be added up. Each week, your wins and losses for that week are added to your wins and losses for the season total.

 Teams scoring the same number of points in a single week have a tie, and a tie will be included in the standings for the week and the season.

 2. Championship
The manager of the team with the MOST WINS for the season is declared the Hazelweird Champion.
1st tie-breaker: the team with the best winning percentage would win.
2nd tie-breaker: in the event the two leaders finish with the same record, the champion is the team with the best head-to-head, week to week record between those two teams.
3rd tie-breaker: if both teams have the same record and have an even record against each other head-to-head (due to ties), then the team with the most total points is the champ.

 AP Recognition: The team with the most total points for the season is recognized with an AP title. This is not a league championship, but recognition for a secondary accomplishment.

Playoff Cup
In weeks 14-17, we will have a 12-team playoff to determine the Playoff Cup.  Seeds will be based on HW standings going into week 14.  There will be a conventional 16 slot bracket, with the top four seeds earning first-round byes.

Week 14
1 v. bye
8 v. 9
5 v. 12
4. v. bye

6. v. 11
3. v. bye
7 v. 10
2 v. bye 

Week 15
1. v. 8/9
4 v. 5/12

3. v. 6/11
2 v. 7/10

Week 16:  Semi-finals (winners tradition bracket style)

Week 17:  The Playoff Cup Champion crowned

 The Playoff Cup is not the league champion, but is awarded recognition for a secondary accomplishment.

3. Scoring
Offense
The Hazelweird League uses fractional scoring for yardage.
Passing Yard: 35 yards per point
Passing TD: 5 points
Rushing Yards: 10 yards per point
Rushing TD: 6 points
Reception: 1 point
Receiving Yards: 10 yards per point
Receiving TD: 6 points
KR or PR TD: 6 points
2-Point Conversion: 2 points
Offensive Fumble Return TD: 6 points

 Kicking
Field Goal: 3 points
PAT Made: 1 point

 Defense/Special Teams
Sack: 1 point
Interception: 1 point
Fumble Recovery: 1 point
Blocked Kick: 1 point
4th Down Stop: 1 point
TD: 6 points
Safety: 4 points
KR or PR TD: 6 points
0 points allowed: 6 points
1-6 points allowed: 4 points
7-13 points allowed: 2 points

4. Roster and Lineup
Rosters consist of 15 positions. You are required to draft 15 players during the draft. There are NINE positions required to fill a starting lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/RB/TE, K, D. You are required to draft all nine starting positions at the draft. The remaining six positions are bench positions and can be filled with any positions. After the draft, you are allowed to carry fewer than 15 players on your roster at any time. After the draft, you are not required to carry all nine starting positions at all times.

 A weekly lineup consists of QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/RB/TE, K, D. There is no specific deadline to have your entire roster for a week set. However, in order to start a particular player in Week A, you must have that player in the lineup prior to his team’s game during Week A.

IF/THEN RULE
Sometimes, league members have obligations which make it difficult or impossible to follow injury updates and make necessary lineup changes just before games. The Hazelweird League attempts as much as is reasonable to accommodate members when this situation arises. Typically, if a player's status is in doubt, we allow members to send a mass email to the league, along lines such as "If X plays I want to start X, but if he doesn't I want to start Y." League commissioner(s) are able to retroactively adjust lineups.  

 This is not a policy to be abused, and is fairly limited; we attempt to use this only for players' whose playing status is in doubt, and only when obligations prevent members from following and finding out about injuries that morning.  In its limited capacity, it may be used for any game starting time or day (but is subject to the rule requiring the substitution player to play at the same time or later than the initial player).

 In a "If Player X plays I'll start Player X, but if he doesn't I'll start Player Y" scenario, Player Y's game must start at the same time or later than Player X's game; you cannot substitute a player whose game occurs prior to Player X's game.

 Any changes to a lineup require an If-Then list sent to the league prior to the start of a game where a player in that game will either be removed from or added to the lineup: no retroactive changes are possible without the If-Then list ahead of time. It is the responsibility of the manager to send the If-Then list if there is any possible need for a lineup change.

TEAM KICKER RULE
If you own Team X's kicker, you have the exclusive right to pick up any kicker on that team's roster at any time, and nobody else in the league may pick up a kicker from Team X.

 5. Auction Draft
Auction drafts will be the preferred format of the Hazelweird League.

 A manager has $300 with which to fill his 15-man roster. Bids in whole number dollar increments may not exceed the remaining dollars in a manager's account; the minimum bid for any player is $0. Any player acquired for $0 is automatically added to the winning manager's roster with no subtraction to the manager's account. If the bidding for a player exceeds (or, if another manager in the bidding reaches) a manager's remaining money, that manager is automatically out of the bidding.

The seating order will be determined by an agreed upon system at time of the draft. When seated, we will go around the table in order, with each manager throwing out a player to be bid on, with the manager starting the bidding with a minimum bid of $0.  All bidding must be made in whole numbers, an increase of at least $1. You may increase the bid by more than $1.

 For each new player thrown out, each manager begins with an open cup, which declares to the other managers that he is in the bidding. At any point, a manager may flip his cup upside-down, which declares him to be out of the bidding for that player. Once your cup is flipped on the bidding for Player A, you cannot re-enter the bidding for Player A. Bidding goes around the table until one manager has made a high bid, and all other managers have flipped their cups. The player being bid on goes to the manager who bid the highest amount, and that amount is subtracted from his salary cap.

 Once a manager wins the auction for a player, each manager still in the auction must flip his cup back to the open side, and another player will be thrown out by the manager whose turn is next (according to the seating order, who is sitting clockwise or counterclockwise to the last manager to throw out a name).

 Once the amount of the bid reaches a manager’s Maximum Bid, he is automatically removed from the bidding (he must flip his cup).

 When it is your turn to throw out a player, you are allowed to pass. If a manager passes, it is the manager next to him who gets to throw out the next player. However, if all other managers in the auction pass consecutively, the first person to pass must throw out a name.

 Each manager is in the bidding until his 15 position roster is filled. When your roster is filled, you are out of the auction, which continues with the remaining managers who have not yet completed their roster. Any salary cap money remaining when you fill the roster is lost.

If you attempt to throw out a player who has already been thrown out earlier and is now on a roster, you must get drinks for people for a specified amount of time (not during actual bidding).

Emergency Draft Procedure

Snake Draft
In the event that an Auction draft cannot be reasonably held, we will have a Snake Draft.

 A snake draft “snakes” around: if you have the first pick in odd rounds, you will have the last pick in even rounds.

 We will have a selection for draft order: instead of simply assigning the draft order by standings, we will allow people to choose their slot in the draft order. The order for selection is the ORDER OF THE PREVIOUS SEASON’S STANDINGS. If you won the league in Year A, you get first choice for a spot in the draft order of Year B. You select a draft slot that fits into the entire snake draft’s pattern.

 Draft will last 15 rounds.

 Draft picks are tradable commodities; you must have a total of 15 picks for the draft, but you may trade them prior to an agreed upon trade deadline.

 If you attempt to draft a player who has already been drafted, you must get drinks for people for a specified period of time.

6. Free Agency
We will use a variation of Yahoo!'s silent auction free agency.

During the regular season, owners will begin the season with a $200 budget to bid on free agents throughout the season.  FAAB money is a tradeable commodity.

 Owners bid blindly on players.  You can bid $0 on players during this period and you can bid the same amount on multiple players and yahoo will process based on your priority.  All waiver claims must be submitted by Tuesday night to ensure processing, and will be distributed by Yahoo Wednesday morning.  After waivers, there is a free-for-all period: owners may pick up any available player at no cost up to the start of that player's game for the following week (as allowed by Yahoo).
                            
You can make claims on more than one player but each player claimed must also have someone dropped to acquire: so I could bid $5 for player x and then $0 for player y, but I must drop 2 different players in those claims to get both players.  If drop the same player in both claims, I would only get one of those players.  Rosters cannot exceed 15 players, but if your roster already had fewer than 15 players, you may make bids without additional drops according to the number of players on your roster.

While you are generally allowed to do what Yahoo! allows for, you may not drop a bench player who has already played his week's game in order to pick up a different player who has not played that week.

 Money that is not used is kept in the owner's budget for future weeks (i.e., unspent money remains for the owner throughout the season).

Money can be included in trades.

If a player is on your roster when his team's game starts, that player is "locked in" your roster: you are not allowed to drop that player in order to pick up another player (you can drop the player, but cannot fill his empty roster spot).  This rule does not apply to trades: if a player is on your bench and has already played in Week X, he may be included in any sort of legal trade, including trades for eligible starters for Week X.

Preseason Free Agency
Preseason Free Agency begins after all preseason games have ended, during the week before the season.  Essentially, the same system we use for the regular season begins the week before the season.  Managers will use their $200 FAAB to make bids on players before Tuesday at midnight, and Wednesday morning players will be assigned to teams.  After the waiver period, there is a "free for all" period when managers may pick up any available players up to the start of that player's team's game for that week.



7. Trade
No trades are allowed before or during the draft, and no trade discussions are allowed before or during the draft.

The trading period traditionally lasts from the moment the draft is over until the start of games one week after the last week including byes.

 Trades may take place between any two teams.  If a trade is not balanced, the team acquiring more players must immediately drop needed players to make a legal 16 player roster (i.e., if you trade one player and get three--and you did not already have open roster spots--you must cut two players, either from your existing roster or players that you just traded for).  

 If you trade more players for fewer players (for example, if you trade three players to get two), so that you have fewer than 16 players on your roster, you are able to make a free agent pick during the next free agency period without being required to drop somebody. You are NOT granted an immediate or extra free agent pickup to get your roster to 16 players.

8. Rule Changes
Changes to league rules are made by a democratic vote. When a rule change is proposed, everybody has a chance to make persuasive arguments to the group.  If the majority of the league agrees to a rule change, the rule is changed. It is not merely a majority of people who actually vote, but a majority of the entire league required to change a rule. A person who abstains from voting on Rule Change A essentially casts a vote of “no” on Rule Change A; not voting is a vote against change.

 Generally speaking, major rule changes affecting scoring system, roster requirements, or lineup requirements should not take place during season (from the beginning of the draft until the end of Week 17). Rule changes can be made at any time, but fundamental rules which would have altered a manager's actions or strategies related to the draft and/or changing and maintaining rosters should be done in the offseason.

 HAZELWEIRD CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY
2002: Joe
2003: Justin
2004: Kiah
2005: Kiah (AP: Rob)
2006: Jerod
2007: Rob (AP: Brad)
2008: Bryan (AP: Rob)
2009: Kiah
2010: Nathan
2011: Kiah
2012: Jerod
2013: Joe (AP: Justin)
2014: Kiah
2015: Abe
2016: Justin
2017: Tony (AP: Justin)

 Playoff Cup Championship History
2012: Joe
2013: Nathan
2014: Bryan
2015: Abe
2016: Adam
2017: Tony

 Hammerlinks Skills Champion History
2010: Justin
2011: Kiah
2012: Jon
2013: Justin
2014: Joe
2015: Adam
2016: Nate
2017: Jerod
2018: Justin

Week 17 Results, FINAL STANDINGS

Justin 9-0 (133.86)
Nathan 8-1 (99.82)
Brad 7-2 (94.44)
Jon 6-3 (90.04)
Joe 5-4 (74.94)
Jerod 4-5 (74.78)
Tony 3-6 (73.20)
Kiah 2-7 (73.12)
Abe 1-8 (69.78)
Bryan 0-9 (49.70)

Final Standings

1. Joe 107-46

2. Justin 105-48

3. Jon 92-61

4. Nathan 90-63

5. Tony 79-74

6. Jerod 77-76

7. Brad 70-83

8. Abe 61-92

9. Kiah 54-99

10. Bryan 30-123

Playoff Cup: Nathan defeats Joe

Hazelweird Champion: Joe

AP Champion: Justin

Playoff Cup Champion: Nathan

Abe O'Rourke Memorial Winner: Bryan