Thursday, August 29, 2013

Preseason Free Agent Picks

This post will be updated throughout the preseason so we can keep tabs on who does and does not have one free agent pick to use.

Justin: Vincent Brown (Jay Cutler)
Nathan: Christine Michael (Jonathan Stewart)
Jerod: Knowshon Moreno (Andre Brown)
Kiah: Kenbrell Thompkins (Tim Tebow)
Tony: Rueben Randle (Danario Alexander)
Abe: Zach Sudfeld (Kenny Britt)
Joe: Jordan Cameron (Fred Jackson)
Bryan: Jared Cook (Donnie Avery)
Jon: Roy Helu (Brian Hartline)
Brad: Denarius Moore (Robert Turbin)

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Proposed Rulebook Clarifications

Team Kicker Rule:
"If you own Team X's kicker, you have the exclusive right to pick up any kicker on that team's roster at any time, and nobody else in the league may pick up a kicker from Team X.”

Preseason FA clarification:

“Players dropped during the preseason FA period are not eligible to be picked up until the Week One FA period”

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Draft Assessment

The material below uses Yahoo!'s rankings and projections (from our league's page), which is of course problematic. For one thing Yahoo! appears to really level things out: as of right now, it projects the best team (Abe's) to outscore the worst team (Brad's) by about 7.75 points per week.  Last year the top-scoring team outscored the lowest-scoring team by about 19.5 points per week.  With each team projected to be an average of under eight points per week within each other's score, Yahoo!'s analysis would suggest the league will come down to a few injuries here or there, a few things you get right and Yahoo! gets wrong, and the ups and downs of Cross Country scoring week to week (beat everybody by at least 10 one week, lose three games by under two points the next week--did you know Jon was second in scoring last year, but finished in 5th place and 16 games out of first in the HW standings?  There are fluky, unlucky things).  But of course we've all got our own ideas about how players will perform this year: that's why we drafted!  Yahoo!'s rankings and projections will do for now.

Part One: Theoretical Snake
For Part One, I am simply showing who drafted which of the top 70 players (why top 70?  Because in a theoretical snake draft, a manager could draft each starter--sans kicker and defense--through the first seven rounds).  This is useful to show what sort of sacrifices people make to construct a particular type of roster (mostly Stars and Scrubs v. Balanced).

For this list I've used Yahoo!'s rankings (which are general, and not specific to Hazelweird scoring--hence the running QBs aren't as highly valued).  I've also added in the hypothetical rounds: a top 10 player is a first rounder, a player ranked 11-20 is a second rounder, etc.

Justin: 7 (4 second-rounders, 1 third, 1 fourth, 1 seventh)
B. Marshall (#15), M. Forte (#17), M. Jones-Drew (#18), D. Brees (#20), D. Thomas (#21), D. Murray (#39), C. Shorts (#67)

Nathan: 9 (2 second-rounders, 2 thirds, 2 fourths, 2 sixths, 1 seventh)
A.J. Green (#12), J. Graham (#16), S. Ridley (#24), Chris Johnson (#25), A. Johnson (#31), P. Manning (#32), D. McFadden (#51), A. Brown (#54), R. Mendenhall (#70)

Jerod: 8 (1 second-rounder, 2 thirds, 2 fifths, 2 sixths, 1 seventh)
S. Jackson (#13), J. Jones (#20), C. Newton (#29), D. Wilson (#41), T. Smith (#50), M. Wallace (#57), V. Davis (#58), S. Smith (#63)

Kiah: 5 (2 first-rounders, 3 fourth-rounders)
D. Martin (#3), C.J. Spiller (#6), L. Miller (#30), V. Jackson (#33), D. Bowe (#34)

Tony: 11 (1 first-rounder, 3 fourths, 3 fifths, 3 sixths, 1 seventh)
A. Morris (#10), F. Gore (#35), M. Colston (#37), C. Kaepernick (#38), R. Wayne (#42), R. Bush (#43), L. Bell (#44), T. Gonzalez (#55), P. Garcon (#56), E. Decker (#59), R. Mathews (#66)

Abe: 5 (2 first-rounders, 1 second, 1 fifth, 1 sixth)
A. Foster (#2), Calvin Johnson (#8), D. Bryant (#14), D. Amendola (#45), D. Sproles (#60)

Joe: 7 (2 first-rounders, 2 fifths, 1 sixth, 2 sevenths)
J. Charles (#4), L. McCoy (#7), H. Nicks (#47), R. Wilson (#48), M. Stafford (#52), W. Welker (#64), J. Witten (#65)

Bryan: 7 (1 first-rounder, 3 thirds, 1 fourth, 2 sevenths)
R. Rice (#9), R. White (#26), V. Cruz (#27), R. Cobb (#28), R. Griffin III (#40), A. Bradshaw (#68), J. Jones (#69)

Jon: 8 (1 second-rounder, 1 third, 1 fourth, 2 fifths, 1 sixth, 2 sevenths)
T. Richardson (#11), L. Fitzgerald (#23), J. Nelson (#36), T. Brady (#46), M. Ryan (#49), R. Gronkowski (#53), M. Ball (#61), A. Luck (#62)

Brad: 3 (2 first-rounders, 1 second)
A. Peterson (#1), M. Lynch (#5), A. Rodgers (#19)

Part Two: Positional Construction
This assessment shows the projected strength of each manager's positions.  Using Yahoo!'s projections based on our points system, we can see again the sort of sacrifices managers must make to construct certain types of rosters.  I've listed below Yahoo!'s projected points for our projected starters, as well as how that score ranks at that position in our league.

This analysis does not account for depth: many managers draft a strong third RB or fourth WR that does not show up here (Part One shows depth better).

Most people have not set their starting lineups: I've tried to use reasonable judgment about who you might start, though quite often the choice calls for a manager's gut judgment call.

QB Brees: 227.26 (5)
RB Forte/Jones-Drew: 429.24 (4)
WR Thomas/Marshall/Jackson: 520.17 (2)
TE Davis: 91.15 (9)

QB Manning: 201.49 (8)
RB Johnson/Ridley: 395 (7)
WR Green/Johnson/Brown: 484.24 (4)
TE Graham: 178.31 (2)

QB Newton: 235.18 (4)
RB Jackson/Wilson: 389.29 (8)
WR Jones/Smith/Smith: 481.71 (5)
TE Davis: 121.12 (5)

QB Ryan*: 199.49 (9) (*Kiah has Vick as starter, but Yahoo! does not project full season)
RB Spiller/Martin: 474.99 (2)
WR Jackson/Bowe/Rice: 414.82 (7)
TE Olsen: 111.3 (7)

QB Kaepernick: 266.92 (1)
RB Morris/Gore: 424.28 (5)
WR Garcon/Colston/Wayne: 457.43 (6)
TE Gonzalez: 139.76 (3)

QB Romo: 190.49 (10)
RB Foster/Sproles: 421.94 (6)
WR Johnson/Amendola/Bryant: 546.35 (1)
TE Myers: 89.69 (10)

QB Wilson: 222.10 (6)
RB Charles/McCoy: 473.2 (3)
WR Welker/Nicks/Austin: 398.68 (8)
TE Witten: 133.57 (4)

QB Griffin: 239.47 (2)
RB Rice/Bradshaw: 351.21 (10)
WR Cobb/Cruz/White: 492.91 (3)
TE Finley: 113.51 (6)

QB Brady: 205.57 (7)
RB Richardson/Ball: 379.48 (9)
WR Fitzgerald/Nelson/Floyd: 377.3 (9)
TE Gronkowski: 186.09 (1)

QB Rodgers: 236.13 (3)
RB Peterson/Lynch: 506.75 (1)
WR Johnson/Jones/Heyward-Bey: 316.47 (10)
TE Bennett: 96.1 (8)