Draft Day Projections v. Current Projections

I thought it would be interesting to to show how Yahoo's projections have changed since draft day (yes, it is probably a good thing that I start teaching next week--and for what it's worth I'll be much busier this fall than usual--this is't that interesting).  Basically, here's the current ranking, and in parentheses is the change from draft day ranking. I'll note again that Yahoo's projections generally seem to hate teams that spend a lot on RBs (with their two lineup spots) and love teams that spend a lot at pass catching positions (with their four).

1. Adam (+1)
2. Chris (+8)
3. Abe (+1)
4. Tony (+1)
5. Kiah (-4)
6. Brad (-3)
7. Joe (+4)
8. Nate (-1)
9. Jerod (-3)
10. Bryan (-1)
11. Jon (-3)
12. Justin (--)

Preseason Free Agent Pick Tracker

Bryan: Tim Wright (Eric Ebron)
Tony: Lance Dunbar (Jonathan Stewart)
Nate: Jonathan Grimes (Marvin Jones)
Justin [via Jon]: Justin Hunter (Marquise Lee)
Joe: Donald Brown (Ka'Deem Carey)
Kiah: Travis Kelce (Charles Sims)
Chris: Ahmad Bradshaw (Andre Brown)
Justin: Richard Rodgers (Garrett Graham)
Adam: Ronnie Hilman (Tre Mason)

Picks remaining: Abe, Jerod, Brad

Draft Analysis #3

Here I'm simply noting how Yahoo projections rank our teams at each position.  I am only looking at projected starters: this analysis does not account for depth.  If you've set a lineup, I've used the lineup you've set; if you didn't, I used whomever Yahoo projects to score the most points.  This may lead to some aberrations, since we essentially have two flex positions (W/R and W/T) that give lineup flexibility that you may not intend to use beyond week one.  In a few cases this makes a clear comparison difficult, but also shows...something.

As you can see, nobody really gets out of a draft without some weakness.

QB
1. Adam: Manning (275)
2. Chris: Brees (257)
3. Bryan: Rodgers (247)
4. Nate: Griffin (243)
5. Brad: Stafford (235)
6. Tony: Luck (233)
7. Jerod: Newton (232)
8. Joe: Kaepernick (227)
9. Jon: Brady (226)
10. Abe: Ryan (223)
11. Justin: Romo (220)
12. Kiah: Rivers (206)

RB
1. Joe: McCoy/Murray (448)
2. Nate: Foster/Lynch (422)
3. Jon: Peterson/Bush (399)
4. Brad: Charles/Pierce (387)
5. Bryan: Lacy/Gore (387)
6. Justin: Ball/Bell (385)
7. Abe: Ellington/Martin (371)
8. Jerod: Stacy/Jennings (363)
9. Kiah: Bernard/Vereen (363)
10. Adam: Gerhart/Sankey (345)
11. Chris: Forte (240)
12. Tony: Richardson (141)

WR
1. Kiah: Nelson/Jones/Johnson (540)
2. Abe: Bryant/Williams/Cobb (511)
3. Chris: Jackson/Allen/Decker/Matthews (509)
4. Brad: Green/Welker/Garcon (505)
5. Jerod: Marshall/Hilton/Edelman (480)
6. Adam: Patterson/Brown/Jackson (471)
7. Tony: Jeffery/Harvin/Smith (463)
8. Bryan: Johnson/Benjamin/Randle (460)
9. Jon: Thomas/Shorts/Boldin (446)
10. Nate: Fitzgerald/Crabtree/Wallace (426)
11. Justin: Colston/Cruz/Cooper (418)
12. Joe: Floyd/Sanders/Wright (404)

TE
1. Tony: Graham/Thomas (319)
2. Chris: Gronkowski (151)
3. Kiah: Witten (131)
4. Brad: Olsen (118)
5. Adam: Cameron (110)
6. Justin: Reed (99)
7. Jon: Davis (98)
8. Abe: Rudolph (96)
9. Jerod: Clay (93)
10. Joe: Ertz (90)
11. Nate: Green (82)
12. Bryan: Graham (79)

Draft Analysis #2

For this positional analysis, I am looking not at who we each drafted to start, but where the players Yahoo projects as starters ended up.  Below you'll see the top 12 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs, and top 12 TEs on each of their teams.  For positional analysis, instead of using Yahoo's rankings, I was able to use Yahoo's point projections based on our league's scoring rules (which differs in several ways from the "rankings," and which better reflects the value of QBs in our league).

I may add comments later.

Joe
QB: C. Kaepernick (#9)
RB: L. McCoy (#4), D. Murray (#5)
WR: M. Floyd (#26), K. Wright (#29), E. Sanders (#32)
TE:

Tony
QB: A. Luck (#7)
RB:
WR: A. Jeffery (#9), T. Smith (#19), P. Harvin (#24),
TE: J. Graham (#1), J. Thomas (#3), M. Bennett (#7)

Abe
QB: M. Ryan (#11)
RB: A. Ellington (#12), D. Martin (#15)
WR: D. Bryant (#2), R. Cobb (#13), T. Williams (#23), D. Bowe (#27), A. Dobson (#36)
TE: K. Rudolph (#11)

Adam
QB: P. Manning (#1), N. Foles (#4)
RB: B. Sankey (#16), T. Gerhart (#17), R. Mathews (#23)
WR: A. Brown (#8), C. Patterson (#16), D. Jackson (#28)
TE: J. Cameron (#6), D. Pitta (#9)

Justin
QB: T. Romo (#12)
RB: M. Ball (#10), L. Bell (#13), A. Morris (#14), S. Ridley (#20), CJ Spiller (#21)
WR: V. Cruz (#20), M. Colston (#21), R. Cooper (#35)
TE: J. Reed (#8)

Jerod
QB: C. Newton (#8)
RB: Z. Stacy (#11), R. Jennings (#18)
WR: B. Marshall (#5), J. Edelman (#18), TY Hilton (#25)
TE: C. Clay (#12)

Nate
QB: R. Griffin (#5)
RB: A. Foster (#7), M. Lynch (#8)
WR: L. Fitzgerald (#10), M. Wallace (#31), M. Crabtree (#34)
TE:

Jon
QB: T. Brady (#10)
RB: A. Peterson (#2)
WR:  D. Thomas (#3), C. Shorts (#30)
TE: V. Davis (#10)

Bryan
QB: A. Rodgers (#3)
RB: E. Lacy (#6), F. Gore (#19)
WR: C. Johnson (#1)
TE:

Kiah
QB:
RB: G. Bernard (#9), S. Vereen (#22), S. Jackson (#24)
WR: J. Jones (#4), J. Nelson (#7), A. Johnson (#14), R. White (#17),
TE: J. Witten (#4)

Brad
QB: M. Stafford (#6)
RB: J. Charles (#1),
WR: AJ Green (#6), W. Welker (#12), P. Garcon (#15),
TE: G. Olsen (#5)

Chris
QB: D. Brees (#2)
RB: M. Forte (#3),
WR: K. Allen (#11), V. Jackson (#22), E. Decker (#33)
TE: R. Gronkowski (#2)

Draft Analysis #1

In this look, I examine how each of our auction approaches translates to a snake draft.  I've simply used Yahoo's rankings for the top 108 players (which takes us through 9 rounds, meaning in theory everybody could draft all of their starters, sans defense and kicker).  Below you'll see the top 108 players on their assigned teams.  For each team I've translated the ranking into the theoretical round, and in parentheses I added how many of the top 108 each team got.  I may have made some errors in transcription here.

In a perfect translation, each of us would have one 1st, one 2nd, etc., so you can see what sorts of sacrifices people make as they draft.

It's worth noting that Yahoo's rankings really don't translate to our auction prices cleanly at all, for several reasons, but that this is the easiest way to add this material.

Later I'll try some different ways to analyze how we prioritized different positions (it will be easier to do this if people put in their planned lineups, but that's up to you).

Joe: one 1st, one 2nd, one 5th, one 6th, two 7ths, two 8ths, one 9th (9)
L. McCoy (#2), D. Murray (#16), M. Floyd (#53), K. Wright (#66), P. Thomas (#76), R. Wilson (#84), C. Kaepernick (#87), E. Sanders (#90), Z. Ertz (#103),

Tony:  one 1st, one 2nd, two 3rds, one 5th, two 7ths, one 8th, one 9th (9)
J. Graham (#7), A. Jeffery (#21), J. Thomas (#36), P. Harvin (#45), A. Luck (#60), T. Smith (#63), T. Richardson (#72), J. Cutler (#77), R. Rice (#99),

Abe: one 1st, three 3rds, one 5th, one 7th, two 9ths (8)
D. Bryant (#12), A. Ellington (#26), R. Cobb (#31), D. Martin (#32), M. Ryan (#59), T. Williams (#73), K. Rudolph (#97),  D. Bowe (#106),

Adam: one 2nd, three 3rds, two 4ths, two 5ths, one 6th, two 8ths (11)
P. Manning (#15), A. Brown (#27), R. Mathews (#30), T. Gerhart (#34), B. Sankey (#37), C. Patterson (#48), D. Jackson (#51), J. Cameron (#58), N. Foles (#69), M. Evans (#92), D. Pitta (#94),

Justin: one 1st, two 2nds, one 3rd, one 4th, three 6ths, two 7ths, one 8th, one 9th (12)
M. Ball (#8), L. Bell (#17), A. Morris (#24), CJ Spiller (#28), V Cruz (#39), S. Ridley (#62), Chris Johnson (#65), M. Colston (#71), T. Romo (#75), L. Miller (#80), R. Cooper (#93), J. Reed (#100),

Jerod: one 2nd, two 3rds, two 5ths, three 6ths, two 7ths, two 9ths (12)
B. Marshall (#14), Z. Stacy (#25), R. Jennings (#35), C. Newton (#56), TY Hilton (#57), J. Edelman (#64), J. Maclin (#67), B. Tate (#70), G. Tate (#79), M. Jones-Drew (#82), S. Watkins (#105), D. Sproles (#108),

Nate: two 1sts, one 4th, one 5th, one 6th, one 7th, two 8th (8)
M. Lynch (#9), A. Foster (#10), L. Fitzgerald (#40), M. Crabtree (#49), R. Griffin (#61), M. Wallace (#83), R. Wayne (#88), M. Jones (#95),

Jon: two 1sts, two 4ths, one 7th, one 8th, one 9th (7)
A. Peterson (#3), D. Thomas (#11), R. Bush (#38), V. Davis (#47), T. Brady (#81), C. Shorts (#87), A. Boldin (#107),

Bryan: two 1sts, one 2nd, one 4th, one 8th, one 9th (6)
E. Lacy (#4), Calvin Johnson (#6), A. Rodgers (#22), F. Gore (#46), F. Jackson (#96), R. Randle (#101),

Kiah: three 2nds, two 4ths, two 5ths, one 6th, one 7th, two 8ths (11)
J. Jones (#19), G. Bernard (#20), J. Nelson (#23), A. Johnson (#43), R. White (#44), S. Vereen (#50), J. Bell (#54), S. Jackson (#68), J. Witten (#78), P. Rivers (#86), T. West (#89),

Brad: one 1st, one 2nd, two 4ths, one 5th, one 7th, two 9ths (8)
J. Charles (#1), AJ Green (#13), W. Welker (#41), P. Garcon (#42), M. Stafford (#55), G. Olsen (#74), B. Pierce (#98), B. Cooks (#102),

Chris: one 1st, one 2nd, two 3rds, one 5th, one 8th, one 9th (7)
M. Forte (#5), D. Brees (#18), K. Allen (#29), V. Jackson (#33), R. Gronkowski (#52), E. Decker (#91), B. Roethlisberger* (#104), *added in "supplemental draft"