Week 8 Free Agency

**Remember for FA order if two teams are tied the team that did worse that week has the higher pick**

1. Bryan- Detroit D
2. Abe- Brian Griese
3. Jerod- Matt Spaeth
4. Kiah- Ryan Grant
5. Jon- Tennessee D
6. Joe- Philly K
7. Rob- Chris Henry (TEN)
8. Justin- Marc Bulger
9. Brad- Seattle D

Week 8 Results

1. Justin 8-0 (94.32)
2. Brad 7-1 (84.00)
3. Jon 6-2 (63.40)
4. Rob 5-3 (61.78)
5. Abe 4-4 (52.16)
6. Joe 3-5 (50.22)
7. Kiah 2-6 (43.20)
8. Bryan 1-7 (36.32)
9. Jerod 0-8 (33.36)

Week 8: Monday Night Countdown

1. Justin 94.32
2. Brad 84.00
3. Jon 63.40
4. Abe 51.04 (Driver)
5. Joe 50.22
6. Kiah 43.20
7. Bryan 36.32
8. Jerod 33.36
9. Rob 24.52 (Favre, Jennings, Packers K, Packers D)

Week 7 Free Agency

**Remember for FA order if two teams are tied the team that did worse that week has the higher pick**

1. Bryan- Jesse Chatman
2. Abe- Cleveland Kicker
3. Kiah- Tennessee Kicker
4. Jerod- New York Giants Kicker
5. Jon- Greg Olsen
6. Joe- Kenny Watson
7. Rob- Roddy White
8. Justin- San Diego D
9. Brad

Week 7 Results

1. Brad 8-0 (88.76)
2. Jerod 7-1 (61.02)
3. Rob 6-2 (55.60)
4. Joe 5-3 (52.84)
5. Bryan 4-4 (50.78)
6. Jon 3-5 (49.66)
7. Justin 2-6 (45.70)
8. Abe 1-7 (45.62)
9. Kiah 0-8 (41.52)

What you need to happen Monday Night

See scores going into Monday below.

Brad
beats Rob, Bryan, Jon
needs Clark to score within:
32.52 of Wayne to beat Joe
33.28 of Manning to beat Jerod
38.78 of Addai to beat Abe
44.58 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
47.36 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Rob
beats Bryan, Jon, loses to Brad
needs:
Wayne to score less than 8 to beat Joe
Manning to score less than 8.76 to beat Jerod
Addai to score less than 14.26 to beat Abe
Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score less than 20.06 to beat Justin
Jones-Drew to score less than 22.84 to beat Kiah

Bryan
beats Jon, loses to Brad and Rob
needs:
Wayne to score less than 3.18 to beat Joe
Manning to score less than 3.94 to beat Jerod
Addai to score less than 9.44 to beat Abe
Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score less than 15.24 to beat Justin
Jones-Drew to score less than 18.02 to beat Kiah

Jon
loses to Brad, Rob, Bryan
needs:
Wayne to score less than 2.06 to beat Joe
Manning to score less than 2.82 to beat Jerod
Addai to score less than 8.32 to beat Abe
Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score less than 14.12 to beat Justin
Jones-Drew to score less than 16.9 to beat Kiah

Joe
needs Wayne to score:
32.52 more than Clark to catch Brad
8 to catch Rob
3.18 to catch Bryan
2 to catch Jon
within .76 of Manning to beat Jerod
within 6.26 of Addai to beat Abe
within 12.06 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
within 14.84 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Jerod
needs Manning to score:
33.28 more than Clark to catch Brad
8.76 to catch Rob
3.94 to catch Bryan
2.82 to catch Jon
.76 more than Wayne to catch Joe
within 5.5 of Addai to beat Abe
within 11.3 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
within 14.08 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Abe
needs Addai to score:
38.78 more than Clark to catch Brad
14.26 to catch Rob
9.44 to catch Bryan
8.32 to catch Jon
6.26 more than Wayne to catch Joe
5.5 more than Manning to catch Jerod
within 5.8 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
within 8.58 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Justin
needs Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score:
44.58 more than Clark to catch Brad
20 to catch Rob
15.24 to catch Bryan
14.12 to catch Jon
12.06 more than Wayne to catch Joe
11.3 more than Manning to catch Jerod
5.8 more than Addai to catch Abe
within 2.78 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Kiah
needs Jones-Drew to score:
47.36 more than Clark to catch Brad
22.84 to catch Rob
18.02 to catch Bryan
16.9 to catch Jon
14.84 more than Wayne to catch Joe
14.08 more than Manning to catch Jerod
8.58 more than Addai to catch Abe
2.78 more than Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to catch Justin

A few observations:

Three scores are locked in and I don't think anybody can catch Brad (with three players still going, Justin has an outside shot). However, if you have any player still going Monday night, it is entirely plausible that you could finish anywhere from 2nd place to 9th place.

One thing that makes any prediction impossible (and also makes rooting difficult) is that so many of the active players are dependent on each other for success. It's difficult to say precisely what you need to happen to beat an opponent when scores by Wayne, Clark, or Harrison, mean scores for Manning and the Indy K, when a score by Joseph Addai or Manning means a score for the Indy K (or to frame it conversely, Manning's score would need Wayne, Clark, Addai, or Harrison to score, and the Indy K will often require Wayne, Clark, Harrison, Addai, or Manning to score). When Indianapolis scores (points or yards), it is very rare that it will be isolated points that only affect one player.

This makes the Jacksonville players wild cards, as they depend on nobody else (or affect nobody else).

Week 7: Monday Night Countdown

1. Brad 80.12 (Da.Clark) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 6th]
2. Rob 55.60 [Highest: 2nd/Lowest: 7th]
3. Bryan 50.78 [Highest: 3rd/Lowest: 8th]
4. Jon 49.66 [Highest: 4th/Lowest: 9th]
5. Joe 47.60 (Wayne) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]
6. Jerod 46.84 (Manning) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]
7. Abe 41.34 (Addai) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]
8. Justin 35.54 (Harrison, M.Lewis, Indy K) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]
9. Kiah 32.76 (Jones-Drew) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]

Week 7: Going into Sunday Night

1. Brad 66.88 (Parker, Holmes, Da.Clark)
2. Bryan 50.78
3. Jon 49.66
4. Joe 47.60 (Wayne)
5. Jerod 46.84 (P.Manning)
6. Justin 33.50 (Henry, Indy K, Harrison, M.Lewis)
7. Kiah 28.76 (Jones-Drew, Pitt D)
8. Abe 27.34 (H.Miller, Addai)
9. Rob 20.00 (Cutler, Denver K, Denver D)

Week 6 Free Agency

**Remember for FA order if two teams are tied the team that did worse that week has the higher pick**

1. Bryan- Desmond Clark
2. Abe- Donte Stallworth
3. Jerod- Devin Hester
4. Kiah- Kevin Jones
5. Abe (via Jon)- Buffalo D
6. Justin (via Rob)- Priest Holmes
7. Joe- Jason Campbell
8. Justin- Mercedes Lewis
9. Brad- Passed [time expired]

Week 6 Results

1. Joe 8-0 (86.96)
2. Brad 7-1 (77.12)
3. Rob 6-2 (65.48)
4. Justin 5-3 (57.50)
5. Jon 4-4 (56.12)
6. Kiah 3-5 (54.76)
7. Jerod 2-6 (49.62)
8. Bryan 1-7 (44.92)
9. Abe 0-8 (32.96)

Week 6: Monday Night Countdown

1. Joe 86.96 [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 5th]
2. Brad 76.76 (Crumpler) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 5th]
3. Rob 65.48 [Highest: 3rd/Lowest: 6th]
4. Justin 57.50 [Highest: 4th/Lowest: 7th]
5. Jon 56.12 [Highest: 5th/Lowest: 8th]
6. Bryan 41.40 (Jacobs) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 8th]
7. Kiah 37.88 (Burress, Giants D) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 8th]
8. Jerod 35.04 (E.Manning, Shockey) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 8th]
9. Abe 32.96 [Guaranteed 9th]

Week 6: Going into Sunday Night

1. Joe 86.96
2. Brad 76.76 (Crumpler)
3. Rob 65.48
4. Justin 57.50
5. Jon 42.36 (Hasselbeck)
6. Bryan 41.40 (Jacobs)
7. Kiah 36.48 (Alexander, Burress, Giants D)
8. Jerod 35.04 (E.Manning, Shockey)
9. Abe 32.96

Midweek Fun: unpickupables

The suggestion that Jon and I could trade Julius Jones for Lee Evans made me ask a question: if we each dropped Jones and Evans, would anybody else bother picking them up?

This led me to a broader question: how many of us have players on our roster that, if they were available, nobody would pick them up?

Two factors play a role here:
1. Productivity: sucky players wouldn't generally get picked up, of course.
2. Name Recognition: recognizable fantasy names that have been unproductive would probably get picked up, while reasonably productive players that have not been recognizable fantasy names might not.

So let's look at each roster; here is my opinion on the unpickupable players on each team. Please, feel free to look at rosters and add names, or refute some of the suggestions I make here. I should add, too, that this isn't a suggestion that you cut these players: we have these sucky players on our rosters for depth in the unfortunate case a non-sucky player gets injured.

Brad
Steve McNair, Ted Ginn, Jr., Trent Green, Lions Kicker, Devin Hester

Justin
Drew Brees, Brandon Marshall

Rob
Donald Lee, Denver Defense, Packer Defense

Jerod
Earnest Graham, Ronald Curry, Philadephia Defense, Indianapolis Defense

Joe
Santana Moss, Julius Jones, Kenton Keith, Jericho Cotchery

Jon
Andre Davis, Warrick Dunn, DeAngelo Williams, Houston Kicker

Kiah
St. Louis Kicker, Owen Daniels, Derek Anderson, DeShawn Wynn, Darrell Jackson

Abe
Randy McMichael, Heath Miller, Isaac Bruce

Bryan
Kevin Curtis, Wes Welker, Bernard Berrian, Shaun McDonald, Matt Schaub, Chris Chambers, Houston Defense, Miami Defense

So, is this accurate? Note that some totally unproductive players aren't included because I think people would see names and want them (if they could get them for nothing), while some of these players are actually productive but I doubt anybody would bother with them.

Week 5 Free Agency

**Remember for FA order if two teams are tied the team that did worse that week has the higher pick**

1. Justin (via Bryan)- Selvin Young
2. Abe- Daunte Culpepper
3. Joe (via Jerod)- New England Kicker
4. Joe- Kenton Keith
5. Jon- Houston Kicker
6. Kiah- Giants D
7. Rob- Vernand Morency
8. Brad- Miami Kicker
9. Bryan (via Justin)- Patrick Crayton

Week 5 Results

1. Rob 8-0 (58.40)
2. Jon 7-1 (58.08)
3. Joe 6-2 (56.14)
4. Justin 5-3 (55.02)
5. Kiah 4-4 (53.98)
6. Brad 3-5 (42.62)
7. Jerod 2-6 (39.66)
8. Bryan 1-7 (33.64)
9. Abe 0-8 (32.76)

Expanded Analysis of Monday Night's Effect

Scores through Sunday are here. I'm doing expanded analysis for my own interest, and posting it because it interests others. I don't do this when I don't have as much self-interest, but if you'd like to when I don't, all you have to do is ask and you can contribute on this blog. While I did it for my own interest, it affects everybody. Here are the details of what needs to happen for anybody to beat anybody going into Monday night.

ROB
beats Brad, Jerod
needs Lee Evans to score less than .8 to beat Jon
needs Terrell Owens to score less than 5.42 to beat Kiah
needs Marshawn Lynch to score less than 6.18 to beat Joe
needs Tony Romo and the Dallas Defense to score less than 21.84 to beat Justin
needs Marion Barber to score less than 28.56 to beat Abe
needs Jason Witten to score less than 34.88 to beat Bryan

JON
beats Brad, Jerod
needs Lee Evans to score:
.8 to catch Rob
within 4.62 of Terrell Owens to beat Kiah
within 5.38 of Marshawn Lynch to beat Joe
within 21.04 of Tony Romo and the Dallas Defense to beat Justin
within 27.76 of Marion Barber to beat Abe
within 34.08 of Jason Witten to beat Bryan

KIAH
beats Brad, Jerod
needs Terrell Owens to score:
5.42 to catch Rob
4.62 more than Lee Evans to catch Jon
within .76 of Marshawn Lynch to beat Joe
within 16.42 of Tony Romo and Dallas Defense to beat Justin
within 23.14 of Marion Barber to beat Abe
within 29.46 of Jason Witten to beat Bryan

JOE
beats Brad, Jerod
needs Marshawn Lynch to score:
6.18 to catch Rob
5.38 more than Lee Evans to beat Jon
.76 more than Terrell Owens to beat Kiah
within 15.66 of Tony Romo and Dallas Defense to beat Justin
within 22.38 of Marion Barber to beat Abe
within 28.7 of Jason Witten to Beat Bryan

BRAD
loses to Rob, Jon, Kiah, and Joe
needs Tony Romo and Dallas Defense to score less than 6.06 to beat Justin
needs Marion Barber to score less than 12.78 to beat Abe
needs Jason Witten to score less than 19.1 to beat Bryan

JEROD
loses to Rob, Jon, Kiah, Joe, and Brad
needs Tony Romo and Dallas Defense to score less than 3.1 to beat Justin
needs Marion Barber to score less than 9.82 to beat Abe
needs Jason Witten to score less than 16.14 to beat Bryan

JUSTIN
needs Tony Romo and Dallas Defense to score:
21.84 to catch Rob
21.04 more than Lee Evans to catch Jon
16.42 more than Terrell Owens to catch Kiah
13.66 more than Marshawn Lynch to catch Joe
6.06 to catch Brad
3.1 to catch Jerod
within 6.72 of Marion Barber to beat Abe
within 13.04 Jason Witten to beat Bryan

ABE
needs Marion Barber to score:
28.56 to catch Rob
27.76 more than Lee Evans to catch Jon
23.14 more than Terrell Owens to catch Kiah
22.38 more than Marshawn Lynch to catch Joe
12.78 to catch Brad
9.82 to catch Jerod
6.72 more than Tony Romo or the Dallas Defense to catch Justin
within 6.32 of Jason Witten to beat Bryan


BRYAN
needs Jason Witten to score:
34.88 to catch Rob
34.08 more than Lee Evans to catch Jon
29.46 more than Terrell Owens to catch Kiah
28.7 more than Marshawn Lynch to catch Joe
19.1 to catch Brad
16.14 to catch Jerod
13.04 more than Tony Romo and Dallas Defense to catch Justin
6.32 more than Marion Barber to catch Abe

I'm human; I may have made mistakes.

Week 5: Monday Night Countdown

1. Rob 58.40 [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 7th]
2. Jon 57.60 (Evans) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 7th]
3. Kiah 52.98 (Owens) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 7th]
4. Joe 52.22 (Lynch) [Highest: 1st/Lowest:7th]
5. Brad 42.62 [Highest: 5th/Lowest: 8th]
6. Jerod 39.66 [Highest: 6th/Lowest: 9th]
7. Justin 36.56 (Romo, Dallas D) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]
8. Abe 29.84 (Barber III) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]
9. Bryan 23.52 (Witten) [Highest: 1st/Lowest: 9th]

Week 5: Going into Sunday Night

1. Jon 57.60 (Lee Evans)
2. Kiah 52.98 (Owens)
3. Joe 52.22 (Lynch)
4. Jerod 39.66
5. Brad 36.62 (Bears D)
6. Rob 28.64 (Favre, Jennings, Packers D, Packers K)
T7. Abe 27.80 (Driver, Barber III)
T7. Justin 27.80 (Benson, Romo, Dallas D)
9. Bryan 14.52 (Chicago K, Witten)

Week 4 Free Agency

**Remember for FA order if two teams are tied the team that did worse that week has the higher pick**

1. Justin (via Bryan) - Dwayne Bowe
2. Abe - Heath Miller
3. Jon - Andre Davis
4. Joe (via Rob) - Tennessee Defense
5. Bryan (via Joe) - Shaun McDonald
6. Jerod - Earnest Graham
7. Kiah - Derek Anderson
8. Justin - Dallas Defense
9. Brad - Passed [time expired]

Week 4 Results

1. Brad 8-0 (90.94)
2. Rob 7-1 (59.08)
3. Justin 6-2 (55.66)
4. Jerod 5-3 (52.78)
5. Jon 4-4 (49.10)
6. Bryan 3-5 (46.70)
7. Abe 2-6 (38.14)
8. Kiah 1-7 (36.40)
9. Joe 0-8 (30.00)