Sunday, October 21, 2007

What you need to happen Monday Night

See scores going into Monday below.

Brad
beats Rob, Bryan, Jon
needs Clark to score within:
32.52 of Wayne to beat Joe
33.28 of Manning to beat Jerod
38.78 of Addai to beat Abe
44.58 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
47.36 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Rob
beats Bryan, Jon, loses to Brad
needs:
Wayne to score less than 8 to beat Joe
Manning to score less than 8.76 to beat Jerod
Addai to score less than 14.26 to beat Abe
Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score less than 20.06 to beat Justin
Jones-Drew to score less than 22.84 to beat Kiah

Bryan
beats Jon, loses to Brad and Rob
needs:
Wayne to score less than 3.18 to beat Joe
Manning to score less than 3.94 to beat Jerod
Addai to score less than 9.44 to beat Abe
Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score less than 15.24 to beat Justin
Jones-Drew to score less than 18.02 to beat Kiah

Jon
loses to Brad, Rob, Bryan
needs:
Wayne to score less than 2.06 to beat Joe
Manning to score less than 2.82 to beat Jerod
Addai to score less than 8.32 to beat Abe
Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score less than 14.12 to beat Justin
Jones-Drew to score less than 16.9 to beat Kiah

Joe
needs Wayne to score:
32.52 more than Clark to catch Brad
8 to catch Rob
3.18 to catch Bryan
2 to catch Jon
within .76 of Manning to beat Jerod
within 6.26 of Addai to beat Abe
within 12.06 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
within 14.84 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Jerod
needs Manning to score:
33.28 more than Clark to catch Brad
8.76 to catch Rob
3.94 to catch Bryan
2.82 to catch Jon
.76 more than Wayne to catch Joe
within 5.5 of Addai to beat Abe
within 11.3 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
within 14.08 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Abe
needs Addai to score:
38.78 more than Clark to catch Brad
14.26 to catch Rob
9.44 to catch Bryan
8.32 to catch Jon
6.26 more than Wayne to catch Joe
5.5 more than Manning to catch Jerod
within 5.8 of Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to beat Justin
within 8.58 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Justin
needs Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to score:
44.58 more than Clark to catch Brad
20 to catch Rob
15.24 to catch Bryan
14.12 to catch Jon
12.06 more than Wayne to catch Joe
11.3 more than Manning to catch Jerod
5.8 more than Addai to catch Abe
within 2.78 of Jones-Drew to beat Kiah

Kiah
needs Jones-Drew to score:
47.36 more than Clark to catch Brad
22.84 to catch Rob
18.02 to catch Bryan
16.9 to catch Jon
14.84 more than Wayne to catch Joe
14.08 more than Manning to catch Jerod
8.58 more than Addai to catch Abe
2.78 more than Harrison, Lewis, Indy K to catch Justin

A few observations:

Three scores are locked in and I don't think anybody can catch Brad (with three players still going, Justin has an outside shot). However, if you have any player still going Monday night, it is entirely plausible that you could finish anywhere from 2nd place to 9th place.

One thing that makes any prediction impossible (and also makes rooting difficult) is that so many of the active players are dependent on each other for success. It's difficult to say precisely what you need to happen to beat an opponent when scores by Wayne, Clark, or Harrison, mean scores for Manning and the Indy K, when a score by Joseph Addai or Manning means a score for the Indy K (or to frame it conversely, Manning's score would need Wayne, Clark, Addai, or Harrison to score, and the Indy K will often require Wayne, Clark, Harrison, Addai, or Manning to score). When Indianapolis scores (points or yards), it is very rare that it will be isolated points that only affect one player.

This makes the Jacksonville players wild cards, as they depend on nobody else (or affect nobody else).

11 comments:

  1. What I need going into Monday night? Shaun Alexander to step on a rusty nail.

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  2. A Kenton Keith touchdown...just what we all wanted!

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  3. Believe it or not, I started Keith in my blogger invitational league. So bully for me.

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  4. Reggie Wayne just passed me by Jon and Bryan. Hey guys.

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  5. I choose "not."

    That Peyton Manning sneak is good for business.

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  6. Manning TD runs make me sad. He needs to keep throwing TDs to catch Favre. And his runs are useless fantasy plays. Oh wait...I start him in that same blogger league. Bully for me.

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  7. They probably think you're a genius. Are you still in first place?

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  8. No. Stupid Colts' bye week. I start Manning, Clark, Vinatieri, and now Keith; without the Colts, my team was pretty bad. And today I need those Colts to go bananas--which they are. So there's that.

    But I'd rather see Reggie Wayne get TDs.

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  9. 14 points is "going bananas?" Brady had 5 TDs at this point in the game last week.

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  10. In that league the scoring is wild. I don't know, but so far those four players have probably got me 30+ points. It's a wacky high scoring league.

    By the way, we must all thank Rob--the fractional scoring is the greatest Revolution to our league since we opened up the bench for any positions. And it's better than that.

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