The fantasy football draft season focuses a lot on running backs, and it calls to mind the real 2005 NFL draft, when three running backs were selected among the top five players. Just for fun, let's look at DraftHistory.com for the top six RBs selected in 2005, and let's look at each RBs fantasy status in 2007. We can look at each player's auction value in the Hazelweird league, the average slot for each player in Yahoo! drafts, as well as the actual production of each player.
Ronnie Brown
2005 #2 pick
2007 auction value: $34
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 17.2
Best season (2006): 1,008 yards
Cedric Benson
2005 #4 pick
2007 auction value: $14
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 41.0
Best season (2006): 647 yards
Carnell Williams
2005 #5 pick
2007 auction value: $4
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 80.1
Best season (2005): 1,178 yards
J.J. Arrington
2005 #44 pick
2007 auction value: undrafted
2007 average Yahoo! selection: none
Best season (2005): 370 yards
Eric Shelton
2005 #54 pick
2007 auction value: undrafted
2007 average Yahoo! selection: none
Best season (2006): 23 yards
Frank Gore
2005 #65 pick
2007 auction value: $71
2007 average Yahoo! selection: 5.9
Best season (2006): 1,695 yards
It's pretty obvious and common to talk about the NFL draft as a "crapshoot," and to look at the early busts and late steals. But it is still interesting that in a matter of two years, the sixth RB selected, and 65th player selected overall, is now considered at least twice as valuable a fantasy prospect as the first RB and 2nd player selected overall. J.J. Arrington and Eric Shelton are worthless as fantasy prospects. But will the order of value remain the same after the 2007 season? I doubt it. Things change pretty fast in football (and fantasy football), and while right now the four worthwhile players would be ranked Gore, Brown, Benson, then Williams, a year of football could reverse that entire order (though I expect Gore to stay high: there aren't a lot of RBs capable of rushing for 1,695 yards OR 5.4 yards per attempt, much less in the same season).
Oh, and other 2005 RBs were drafted in our league, including Vernand Morency (#73), Marion Barber (#109) and Brandon Jacobs (#110).
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I think that RB's in the draft and their subsequent draft spot is a better indication of potential viability than that of WRs or QBs. WR definately have a better chance of starting, at least in my mind, regardless of their draft order, the same with CB and Safeties.
ReplyDeleteIt would be interesting to see which position has the best chance of having a lower draft pick start. My guess for most viable would be punter. Have you ever heard of a team drafting a punter?
ABE
there have been punters drafted, but outside special teamers I would guess that OL, DL, and LB have the best possibility of being successful despite being picked lower.
ReplyDeleteI think it might be fun to draft one defensive player, just to have a representative. Say 1 point for a tackle, 6 points for a sack, 3 for a forced or interception. One person per team.
ReplyDeleteI would have a LB in a 3-4 like Shawn Merriman.